Lake Mead is projected to fall below its record low levels within the next two years, according to recent projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. By September 2027, the reservoir is expected to reach 1,038.48 feet above sea level, which is more than two feet lower than its previous record low set in the summer of 2022. This forecast indicates that the ongoing mega-drought—now spanning over two decades—shows no sign of relief from Rocky Mountain snowpack, which feeds the Colorado River system.
Lake Mead is critical for Southern Nevada, supplying about 90 percent of Las Vegas’ water. Despite having the smallest allocation among the seven states dependent on the Colorado River, Nevada manages to stretch its water supply by returning treated water to the reservoir, earning credits to withdraw more than its official share.
The current agreement dictating water conservation and shortage sharing among the seven basin states will expire at the end of 2026. New guidelines are urgently needed to prevent further decline and potential system failure, but recent attempts to reach a consensus have stalled. Water managers and officials are under increasing pressure to negotiate updated rules that can stabilize the river system and address the worsening drought conditions.
